It is now known that North Korea (d/b/a the Democratic People's Republic of Korea) has claimed to have detonated a nuclear weapon. What is not known (to me, at least) is their larger point in doing so. At first blush, the point of a detonation is to figure out if the things works and to gather valuable data for determining yield and other such metrics.
That being said, the testing of a nuclear device does not occur in a vacuum. It is a political event as well. It makes a statement to the world community as a whole. So the North Koreans know that their weapon works and they have also said something to the world community. But what?
The reflexive reaction for this non-Korea scholar is, "A middle finger directed at Washington", but this may not be the case. It's not always about us, although it is not wrong to at least consider the possibility that it is. Comes now an alternative theory, one that I would not have come up with on my own:
Greg Pollowitz, a financial man who also writes for National Review, says in a public message to K.J. Lopez:
There's another possibility that isn't being talked about regarding why North Korea chose today to fire off a nuke. What if if North Korea's test was done more as a protest of a South Korean, Ban Ki-Moon, from heading the UN and had little to do with US foreign policy decisions?
There is more at the original entry; I suggest reading it for background. The theory is not inherently unreasonable; after all, another large Communist state in the region is very fond of using military tests and/or exercises to exert foreign influence on a very nearby state. The Communist Chinese have a reputation for attempting to intimidate the Republic of China every so often, and I believe that this reputation is well earned. The country that the DPRK is closest to (in my mind) is the PRC, and it is not impossible that Pyongyang would steal a page from Beijing's playbook. Thus, Mr. Pollowitz's theory is valid as of 11:20 here in the East.
I sincerely hope that the reported DPRK nuclear test was more a domestic policy statement aimed at Seoul, and not a foreign policy statement aimed at Washington, D.C.
Posted by Country Pundit at October 9, 2006 10:21 AM | TrackBack